www.calculatedriskblog.com It is difficult to predict what will happen over the next year. There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of policy on inflation and the economy in coming months. calculatedrisk.substack.com calculatedri…

原油市場他：イスラエルとイランとの間での事実上の戦闘状態突入により、跳ね上がる原油価格 https://oilgas-info.jogmec.go.jp/info_reports/1010309/1010519.html LNGと石炭のライフサイクルGHG排出量の比較について https://oilgas-info.jogmec.go.jp/inf…

calculatedrisk.substack.com ・サウジで日本の抹茶ブーム。 https://www.arabnews.com/node/2599810/saudi-arabia ・UAE：4月は記録的猛暑。平均気温42.6度。 https://www.arabnews.com/node/2599313/middle-east note.com econbrowser.com econbrowser.com…

Calculated Risk : Recession Watch Metrics www.calculatedriskblog.com

豪州連邦選挙に向けた与野党の資源エネルギー政策方針 https://oilgas-info.jogmec.go.jp/info_reports/1010309/1010478.html USDA 大豆 : 南アフリカ、アラブ首長国連邦、EUで生産量が引き上げられたものの、ボリビアで引き下げられたこと等を受け、前月よ…

www.s-housing.jp www.nli-research.co.jp 労働市場からの退出が増える中で失業者が増加しており、内容は悪い。 www.nli-research.co.jp www.nli-research.co.jp www.nli-research.co.jp www.nikkei.com BPは2020年に脱炭素戦略を打ち出し石油メジャーの中で…

calculatedrisk.substack.com www.jetro.go.jp 英国の成人肥満率は28.7％、過体重も含めると65.0％に及ぶ。G7各国の成人肥満率と比較すると、米国が42.9％と突出しているものの、英国は米国に次ぐ2番目の高さとなっている（日本は4.9％）。 econbrowser.com …

wardsintelligence.informa.com Wards Auto : There was some indication that the surge was decelerating by the end of the month, probably due to tariff “exuberance” starting to dry up and because of a drain to inventory. Calculated Risk : my …

calculatedrisk.substack.com Calculated Risk : The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will be up less year-over-year in the March report compared to February. BEA : the PCE price index for March decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excl…

brandonhale.substack.com Some midsize SUVs and pickup trucks are quietly getting new sticker prices.The big jump is expected by June.Most insiders are whispering five to fifteen percent increases depending on the model. calculatedrisk.subs…

calculatedrisk.substack.com Calculated Risk : My early expectation is that we will see existing home sales (SA) mostly unchanged year-over-year in April compared to April 2024 (4.08 million SAAR). Calculated Risk : Inventory will likely pa…

エネルギートランジションへの逆風の中、今後欧州はどこに向かうのか https://oilgas-info.jogmec.go.jp/info_reports/1010309/1010474.html 再生可能エネルギーの急増により「変動電源」による電力供給の不安定さや電力価格の乱高下の問題も顕在化している…

www.nli-research.co.jp 円スワップ市場が政策期待を事前に織り込む一方で、日本国債市場が制度的・流動性面から事後的に反応したことによる構造的なタイムラグを意味していると解釈できる。 www.nli-research.co.jp www.nli-research.co.jp 長期的にみれば…

mortgagetech.ice.com ICE : today released its March 2025 First Look, which reveals that while delinquency rates edged up slightly year over year (YoY), they remain below pre-pandemic levels. www.jetro.go.jp UPIは、日本のQRコード決済とは違…

calculatedrisk.substack.com www.nikkei.com econbrowser.com econbrowser.com Econbrowser : Expected year-on-year changes in unit costs have risen from 2.2% in October 2024 to 2.8% in April. www.jetro.go.jp 米国は2024年の2.8％から、2025年は1.…

ABI : The ABI/Deltek Architecture Billings Index dipped further from February to 44.1 in March, as even more firms reported a decline in billings from the previous month. Fed's Beige Book : Economic activity was little changed since the pr…

calculatedrisk.substack.com This data suggests that the March existing home sales report will be down from February (SA) and might show a year-over-year decrease for the second consecutive month. 米・長期金利、４．４２%に上昇 https://jp.ws…

www.nli-research.co.jp 東京23区の新築マンション価格は前年比＋13％上昇した。エリア別では、資産性を重視する傾向が強まり「都心」は前年比＋29％、「タワーマンション」は前年比＋25％上昇した。 東京（港区元麻布）のハイエンドクラスのマンション価格…

www.nli-research.co.jp 4月30日発表の1－3月期の実質ＧＤＰにおける住宅投資（前期比年率）は前期の+5.5％からプラス幅は縮小するものの、2期連続でプラスを維持するとみられる。 www.nli-research.co.jp 企業の値上げに対する抵抗感が薄れていることもあり…

calculatedrisk.substack.com www.jetro.go.jp ベネズエラへの制裁は個人と特定の政府機関に対するもので、民間部門にはいかなる制裁もない。石油以外は制裁の対象外なので問題なく機能している。 www.jetro.go.jp note.com news.yahoo.co.jp 溜池通信 : 続…

calculatedrisk.substack.com www.nikkei.com 欧州などの同盟国でもドル離れの機運が高まり、構造的なドル安転換の様相を呈する。 www.nikkei.com 神戸空港は30年前後には国際定期便の就航を目指しており、すでに意欲を示している海外航空会社もある。 ノア…

Fed Chair Powell : Economic Outlook www.federalreserve.gov Fed Chair Powell : The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will in…

calculatedrisk.substack.com Calculated Risk : This data suggests that the March existing home sales report will be down from February (SA) and will likely show a year-over-year decrease for the second consecutive month. Calculated Risk : U…

calculatedrisk.substack.com Calculated Risk : Existing home inventory will provide clues on house prices, and a combination of existing and new home inventory will indicate what will happen with housing starts. Calculated Risk : Anyway we …

Calculated Risk : If policy had remained unchanged, we'd probably be celebrating a "soft landing". However, the tariffs will likely impact prices in May (the data will be released in June). 原油市場他：米国と中国の間での関税率引き上げ合戦…

www.nli-research.co.jp キャッシュレス化の進展に加え、インフレによるタンス預金の目減り懸念等により、現金離れが進んでいるものと考えられる。 定期預金金利の水準が上がったうえ、従来はほぼゼロであった普通預金との金利差も広がったことで、企業や一…

GDPNow : The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.3 percent. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow calculatedrisk.substack.com Calculated Risk : This early data sugges…

calculatedrisk.substack.com Calculated Risk : Minutes later, a 90-day pause for most tariffs was announced (reducing tariffs to 10%, except China). An hour later Goldman Sachs put out a second note: Reverting to Our Previous Non-Recession …

FOMC Minutes : inflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded the magnitude and persistence of such effects. FOMC Minutes : stricter immigration policies might red…

calculatedrisk.substack.com Calculated Risk : it appears inventory is picking up more than usual in the Spring. Calculated Risk : This early data suggests that the March existing home sales report will likely be down from February (SA) and…