昨日、決算を発表したアメックスのカンファレンスコールでの発言です。
AmEx: I would say that early in the cycle I think that housing was a significant driver of higher delinquencies and writeoff rates and we certainly did see that in states that had larger drops in housing. However, at this juncture, I really think that unemployment has taken over as the primary driver of delinquency and writeoff rates, so I think that's what we will need to see for a real turn. I think stabilization in the housing market will be important. I think consumer confidence will be critically important, people have to feel comfortable that we are going to retain their job and when those things start to happen, I think is when we will really start to see some notable improvements.
つまり、今回の景気後退の初期段階では、住宅価格の下落がクレジットカードの支払い遅延の主な原因だったが、現段階では、それに代わって、失業問題が、支払い遅延と不良債権償却の最大の原因となっているとのことです。
今後、米国経済を観察する際の対象として、雇用情勢をより重視することが肝要です。
